Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
